Manthan Kushwaha | Stocks, Funds & Share Market Guide and Blogs

Indian bond yields are back in the spotlight. As of February 2026, the 10-year government bond yield in India has climbed to around 6.76%, its highest level in nearly a year. That sharp move has triggered a debate: Is this a warning sign for equities, or just a temporary market adjustment?

To answer that, we need to understand what rising government bond yields in India really signal and how the bond yield effect on equities plays out.

What Are Bond Yields and Why Do They Matter?

Bond yields represent the return investors earn on government securities (G-Secs). When we talk about Indian bond yields, we usually refer to the 10-year benchmark because it acts as a reference rate for the broader economy.

There’s a simple rule:

• When bond prices fall, yields rise.
• When yields rise, borrowing costs increase.

Higher yields mean the government must pay more to borrow. In turn, this influences corporate borrowing rates, home loans, and overall interest rates in India.

That’s why bond yields matter—not just for debt investors, but also for stock market participants.

Why Are Government Bond Yields in India Rising in 2026?

Several macroeconomic factors are driving the surge in Indian bond yields.

Budget Market Reaction

The Union Budget 2026 announced record gross borrowing of ₹17.2 trillion for FY27. While the fiscal deficit target remains manageable at 4.3%, the sheer size of borrowing spooked bond markets.

Higher supply of bonds typically leads to:

• Lower bond prices
• Higher yields

This budget market reaction pushed the 10-year yield closer to 6.78% before settling near 6.76%.

RBI’s Policy Stance

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate steady at 5.25% in its February 2026 review. However, the absence of aggressive liquidity measures made markets cautious.

While traders expect open market operations (OMOs) to manage supply pressure, uncertainty around inflation forecasts has kept yields elevated.

Global Influences

Indian bond yields don’t move in isolation. Rising US Treasury yields, global inflation expectations, and geopolitical uncertainties influence capital flows.

If US yields rise, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) may shift money from emerging markets like India to safer US assets—putting additional pressure on domestic bonds and the rupee.

Bond Yields and Equity Market: Understanding the Impact

The bond yield effect on equities is real and often immediate.

1. Higher Borrowing Costs for Companies

When government bond yields in India rise, corporate borrowing becomes expensive. Sectors like:

• Real estate
• Infrastructure
• Manufacturing

are particularly sensitive because they rely heavily on debt. Higher costs reduce profit margins, which can compress stock valuations.

2. Asset Allocation Shift

Rising yields make bonds more attractive compared to equities. If investors can earn close to 7% in relatively safe government bonds, some capital naturally shifts away from stocks.

This increases short-term equity market risk, especially in growth-oriented sectors.

3. Currency and FII Impact

If rising yields are driven by global pressure rather than domestic strength, FIIs may reduce exposure to Indian equities. A weaker rupee further impacts companies dependent on imports.

Is This a Warning Sign or a Healthy Adjustment?

The Case for Caution

• Persistent high yields above 6.8% could pressure valuations.
• Elevated inflation expectations may delay future rate cuts.
• Continued heavy borrowing could keep supply pressure intact.

The Case for Optimism

• India’s growth forecast remains strong at around 7%+ for FY26.
• Banking stocks may benefit from improved net interest margins.
• India’s inclusion in global bond indices is expected to attract steady foreign flows.

Historically, Indian equities have absorbed yield spikes when growth momentum remains intact.

Investment Strategy When Indian Bond Yields Rise

Instead of panic selling, consider recalibration.

Diversify Across Asset Classes

Allocating 20–30% to debt or short-duration funds can reduce volatility in a rising yield environment.

Focus on Quality Stocks

Look for:

• Low debt levels
• Strong free cash flow
• Pricing power

Defensive sectors like FMCG, IT services, and select private banks often handle interest rate shifts better.

Watch RBI Signals

Future commentary from the RBI on liquidity, inflation, and repo rate direction will guide the next leg of yield movement.

Final Verdict: Should You Panic?

The rise in Indian bond yields to 6.76% reflects fiscal expansion, global trends, and inflation caution—not necessarily an economic crisis.

Yes, the bond yield effect on equities increases short-term volatility. But long-term investors should view this as a signal to rebalance, not retreat.

Markets move in cycles. Rising yields may tighten conditions temporarily, but as long as growth fundamentals remain intact, Indian equities can navigate this phase.

The key is not panic—but positioning wisely.

Dividend investing is once again in focus as the NSE dividend calendar 2026 and BSE dividend list highlight consistent payouts across sectors. In a volatile market, Indian stock market dividends offer investors something rare—predictable cash flow.

For long-term investors, dividend investing is not just about income. It’s about total return, stability, and compounding. Let’s break down how dividends work, why they matter in 2026, and how to track upcoming opportunities.

What Are Dividends and Why Do They Matter?

A dividend is a portion of a company’s profit distributed to shareholders. Companies listed on NSE and BSE typically pay dividends quarterly or annually.

Dividends signal:

• Strong cash flows
• Profitability
• Shareholder-friendly management

For investors, dividends form a key component of total returns—alongside capital appreciation. In fact, historically, a meaningful portion of long-term stock market returns comes from reinvested dividends.

Why Dividend Stocks in India Are Attractive in 2026

The Indian stock market dividends theme is gaining traction for several reasons:

Stable Passive Income

High-quality dividend stocks can generate yields between 4–7%, often higher than traditional fixed deposits. For income-focused investors, this provides steady cash flow even during market corrections.

Compounding Power

Reinvesting dividends through a disciplined strategy can significantly enhance wealth creation. Even modest investments in high-yield dividend stocks can grow exponentially over time due to compounding.

Defensive Cushion

Dividend-paying companies are often large, established players in sectors like energy, finance, FMCG, and infrastructure. These businesses tend to show resilience during economic slowdowns.

With India’s structural growth story intact, dividend stocks in India remain a relevant strategy for 2026 and beyond.

Understanding Ex-Dividend Dates

One of the most important concepts when tracking the NSE dividend calendar 2026 is the ex-dividend date.

The ex-dividend date is the cut-off date to qualify for a dividend. If you buy shares on or after this date, you will not receive the declared dividend.

Key points:

• The ex-dividend date usually comes one day before the record date.
• Stock prices often adjust downward by the dividend amount on the ex-date.
• Missing the ex-dividend date means missing the payout.

Serious dividend investors closely monitor the NSE dividend calendar and BSE dividend list to avoid missing these critical dates.

Best Dividend Stocks in India for 2026

While yields fluctuate with price movements, several companies are known for consistent payouts and strong fundamentals.

Sectors currently leading dividend distributions include:

• Metals and mining
• Oil & gas
• Power and infrastructure
• Select FMCG players

Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) like Coal India, ONGC, REC, and PFC often maintain high payout ratios due to government dividend policies. Meanwhile, private players such as ITC and Vedanta remain popular among income-focused investors.

However, yield alone should not drive decisions. Investors must assess:

• Payout ratio sustainability
• Free cash flow generation
• Debt levels
• Earnings stability

How to Use the NSE Dividend Calendar and BSE Dividend List

The NSE dividend calendar 2026 provides updated information on:

• Interim and final dividends
• Ex-dividend dates
• Record dates

Similarly, the BSE dividend list mirrors most dual-listed stocks and helps cross-verify corporate actions.

Tracking these calendars allows investors to:

• Plan entries before ex-dates
• Estimate expected dividend income
• Manage portfolio cash flows efficiently

Many brokerage platforms and stock screeners now allow filtering by dividend yield, payout history, and announcement dates.

Building a Dividend-Focused Portfolio

A balanced dividend portfolio should include:

• 10–15 diversified stocks
• A mix of PSU and private companies
• Average portfolio yield around 5–6%

Look for companies with at least five years of consistent dividend history. Sustainable free cash flow is more important than temporary high yields.

Dividend Reinvestment Plans (DRIPs) can further accelerate long-term wealth creation.

Final Thoughts

The growing activity in the NSE dividend calendar 2026 and updated BSE dividend list shows that dividend investing remains relevant in India.

Dividends offer stability, passive income, and compounding potential. However, investors must evaluate sustainability rather than chase high yields blindly.

Used wisely, dividend stocks in India can become the foundation of a disciplined, income-generating portfolio.

The silver market in 2026 has become one of the most discussed topics among investors. After a historic rally and sharp corrections, volatility remains high. Naturally, the biggest question dominating headlines is simple: Could silver reach $500 in 2026?

This silver price prediction 2026 analysis explores the fundamentals, silver futures outlook, and realistic scenarios—without hype.

Why Silver Is So Volatile in 2026

Silver sits in a unique position between an industrial metal and a safe-haven asset. Around 60% of global demand comes from industrial usage—especially solar panels, electric vehicles (EVs), semiconductors, and electronics. The rest comes from investment demand through ETFs, futures contracts, and physical bullion.

When industrial demand rises and economic uncertainty increases, silver often accelerates faster than gold. That explains the aggressive rally seen in 2025 and early 2026. However, silver also corrects sharply because speculative trading in the silver futures market amplifies price swings.

This dual nature is what makes silver price prediction 2026 both exciting and complex.

Key Drivers Behind Silver Price Forecast 2026

Industrial Demand Expansion

Green energy adoption continues to drive structural demand. Solar installations and EV production require significant silver input. If supply struggles to keep pace, persistent deficits could support higher prices.

Inflation and Interest Rates

Silver performs well in low-interest-rate environments. If central banks shift toward easing monetary policy, non-yielding assets like silver become more attractive. Inflation fears also push investors toward tangible assets.

Gold-Silver Ratio Compression

Historically, silver tends to outperform gold in late-stage precious metal rallies. If the gold-silver ratio narrows significantly, silver could see outsized percentage gains.

Silver Futures Market Positioning

CME data and options activity often indicate speculative positioning. When silver futures become overbought, corrections follow. However, short squeezes and gamma squeezes can temporarily push prices sharply higher.

Could Silver Reach $500 in 2026?

From a structural perspective, $500 silver would require extraordinary catalysts. That level implies a multi-fold increase from current prices. For silver to reach $500 in 2026, several extreme conditions would likely need to occur simultaneously:

• Severe global supply shortages
• Hyperinflation or currency instability
• Massive ETF inflows
• Collapse in the gold-silver ratio

While some analysts and commentators project aggressive upside scenarios, most institutional forecasts place silver between $90 and $150 under base-case conditions.

Even bullish scenarios rarely justify $500 without systemic economic disruption.

Silver Futures Outlook: What Markets Suggest

The silver futures market currently signals volatility rather than sustained exponential growth. Positioning suggests optimism, but also vulnerability to corrections. Traders should monitor:

• Open interest trends
• Commitment of Traders (COT) reports
• Industrial demand data
• Federal Reserve policy signals

Short-term spikes are possible. Sustained parabolic moves are statistically rare.

Realistic Silver Price Prediction 2026

A balanced silver price prediction 2026 would consider three scenarios:

• Base Case: Gradual climb toward $100–$130
• Bull Case: Strong industrial expansion pushing $150–$200
• Extreme Case: Crisis-driven spike beyond $200

A move to $500 remains highly speculative.

Final Thoughts: Opportunity with Risk

Silver remains one of the most dynamic commodities in 2026. Strong fundamentals support upside potential, but volatility demands disciplined risk management. Whether investing in physical silver, ETFs, or silver futures, diversification and position sizing are essential.

The silver story is still unfolding. $500 may capture headlines, but smart investors focus on probability—not possibility.

The Indian stock market never stays still, but one segment that continues to command investor attention is defence stocks in India. Backed by strong government support, rising geopolitical tensions, and a push toward self-reliance, the defence stock in 2026 is emerging as a powerful long-term investment theme. With increasing defence orders, higher capital allocation, and export expansion targets, select defence stocks could deliver up to 30% upside in the coming year.

Why Defence Stocks in India Are Gaining Momentum

India’s defence sector has entered a structural growth phase. The government’s focus on “Atmanirbhar Bharat” has led to a ban on thousands of imported defence items, encouraging domestic manufacturing. This policy shift has created long-term revenue visibility for Indian defence companies engaged in missiles, radars, naval ships, and aerospace systems.

The Union Budget has consistently increased capital expenditure for defence procurement and research. Large orders for frigates, missile systems, aircraft upgrades, and electronic warfare systems have strengthened the order books of leading companies. Additionally, India’s defence exports have crossed record levels, with ambitious targets for the coming years. This combination of domestic demand and global outreach makes defence stocks in India structurally attractive.

Macroeconomic stability also plays a role. With GDP growth projected in the 6–7% range and continued infrastructure spending, the broader economic environment supports capital-intensive industries like defence and aerospace.

Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL): A Top Defence Stock for 2026

Among the leading defence stocks in India, Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) stands out. The company operates in defence electronics, including radar systems, communication equipment, and electronic warfare solutions. Analysts have projected a potential upside of around 25–30%, supported by a strong order book and consistent execution.

BEL benefits from government contracts and growing international opportunities in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Its focus on indigenisation, relatively stable financial profile, and expanding capabilities in missile guidance and surveillance systems make it a core holding in the defence sector in 2026. While short-term volatility due to supply chain disruptions is possible, long-term fundamentals remain intact.

Other Promising Defence and Aerospace Stocks

Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) continues to dominate defence aviation with its Light Combat Aircraft program and helicopter maintenance services. Its massive order book provides revenue visibility for several years. Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL), active in missile manufacturing, is also gaining attention due to expanding defence acquisition approvals.

In shipbuilding, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders and Garden Reach Shipbuilders are benefiting from naval modernization projects. Meanwhile, companies like MTAR Technologies and Paras Defence and Space Technologies are capitalizing on precision engineering, space systems, and advanced optics, adding diversification within the aerospace segment.

Risks to Consider Before Investing

Despite strong growth prospects, defence stocks in India are not risk-free. A slowdown in government spending, geopolitical de-escalation, supply chain disruptions, or valuation corrections could impact stock prices. Many stocks in this segment trade at premium valuations, making them sensitive to earnings disappointments.

Conclusion

The defence stock in 2026 represents a blend of policy-driven stability and high-growth potential. With increasing domestic production, rising exports, and sustained budget support, defence stocks in India remain a compelling theme for long-term investors. However, careful stock selection, valuation awareness, and ongoing monitoring of order execution are essential for maximizing returns in this evolving sector.

What is the Updated Aadhaar App?

The updated Aadhaar app, officially named “Aadhaar”, is developed by the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) for Aadhaar number holders. It allows users to securely carry, verify, share, and manage their digital identity without exposing full Aadhaar details unnecessarily.

This new Aadhaar app replaces the older mAadhaar app and is built with a strong focus on privacy, consent-based data sharing, and user control. It enables offline QR verification, biometric security, face authentication, and even supports managing multiple family members under one account.

The app is easily identifiable on the Google Play Store and Apple App Store by the Aadhaar sun logo and is digitally signed by UIDAI.

Features of the Updated Aadhaar App

The Aadhaar app features are designed to improve convenience, privacy, and security for everyday identity verification needs.

Offline QR Code Verification

Users can verify their identity at locations such as hotels, banks, or offices without internet connectivity. No Aadhaar number or biometric data is shared during offline verification.

Selective Data Sharing

The app allows users to share only specific details such as name or age through password-protected QR codes. This supports data minimisation and prevents misuse.

Face ID-Based Authentication

Users can authenticate their identity using face verification, enhancing security while eliminating dependency on fingerprints.

One-Click Biometric Lock and Unlock

Biometrics can be locked or unlocked instantly to prevent unauthorised Aadhaar-based authentication attempts.

Multi-Profile Support

The “One Family – One App” feature allows users to manage up to five Aadhaar profiles on a single device, making it ideal for families.

QR-Based Contact Card

A limited digital identity card can be shared securely using QR codes without revealing full Aadhaar details.

In-App Aadhaar Updates

Users can update their registered mobile number or address directly within the app using digital documents.

Authentication History

The app provides access to past authentication attempts and update requests, ensuring transparency and control.

Consent Controls

Users have complete control over what data is shared and with whom, aligning with India’s Digital Personal Data Protection framework.

Benefits of the Updated Aadhaar App

• Eliminates the need for physical photocopies of Aadhaar
• Works offline in low-network areas
• Supports paperless digital governance
• Improves privacy with selective data sharing
• Reduces visits to Aadhaar centres for routine updates
• Backed by government-grade security infrastructure

How to Download the UIDAI Aadhaar App

Follow these steps to download the official Aadhaar app:

• Open the Google Play Store (Android) or Apple App Store (iOS)
• Search for “Aadhaar” or “Aadhaar by UIDAI”
• Verify the developer as Unique Identification Authority of India
• Tap Install and wait for the download to complete
• Launch the app, select language, verify Aadhaar via OTP or face authentication, and set a security PIN

Existing mAadhaar users can log in using their old credentials and migrate seamlessly.

Updating Aadhaar Details Using the Aadhaar Update App

Updating Your Mobile Number

• Open the Aadhaar app and log in
• Go to Menu and select “Update Aadhaar Details”
• Choose Mobile Number and enter the new number
• Authenticate using OTP or face verification
• Pay the applicable update fee
• Changes reflect after UIDAI verification

Updating Your Address

• Navigate to Address Update from the Menu
• Upload digital address proof
• Authenticate and submit the request
• No physical visit is usually required

Security and Privacy in the New Aadhaar App

The Aadhaar app uses encrypted offline credentials, biometric locks, and consent-based access to prevent misuse. Only authorised offline verification requesters can validate credentials, and no Aadhaar number is stored by third parties.

Conclusion

The new Aadhaar app marks a major step forward in digital identity management in India. With powerful Aadhaar app features, a simple Aadhaar download process, and seamless updates through the Aadhaar update app, users gain privacy, control, and convenience like never before.

Downloading the official UIDAI Aadhaar app ensures safer identity verification, reduced paperwork, and alignment with India’s evolving digital ecosystem.

What Is a UPI Credit Line?

UPI Credit Line is a facility that can be availed through a UPI-enabled app. It allows users to access a pre-approved line of credit for making payments directly via UPI, without requiring a physical or virtual credit card.

The National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) enables this feature, where banks and lenders use AI-driven analytics and UPI transaction data to assess eligibility and assign credit limits. Initially, limits are small but can increase over time based on repayment behaviour.

Users can link the credit line to popular UPI apps such as PhonePe, Google Pay, Paytm, and BHIM. Payments to merchants (P2M) are made using a UPI Credit PIN, and repayments can be completed through inward UPI transactions or auto-pay mandates.

Unlike RuPay credit cards linked to UPI, where the card account is the primary source of funds, the UPI Credit Line itself becomes the funding source, making credit usage seamless within the UPI ecosystem.

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How Does UPI Credit Line Work?

Users can activate the credit line by selecting the “Credit Line” option within their UPI app and linking it to their issuing bank (registered with the mobile number). After verification, users set a dedicated PIN for secure access.

Once activated, payments follow the standard UPI flow:

• Scan the merchant QR code
• Enter the transaction amount
• Select the credit line as the payment source
• Authorize using the UPI Credit PIN

Key features include:

• Transaction monitoring within the app
• No card issuance or linking fees
• Merchant payments supported (limited P2P)
• Standard UPI transaction limits
• Secure authentication via UPI PIN

As of 2026, adoption remains slow, but small finance banks and fintech companies are actively targeting underbanked users.

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UPI Credit Line vs Credit Cards: Key Differences

Aspect	UPI Credit Line	Traditional Credit Cards (Including UPI-Linked)
Accessibility	Linked to UPI apps; no physical card required	Requires card issuance (physical or virtual)
Onboarding	Faster, data-driven approval	CIBIL checks, documentation, longer process
Usage	QR-based, small-ticket daily payments	POS, online purchases, rewards-oriented
Credit Limits	Lower initially; scalable over time	Higher limits, especially premium cards
Costs	Lower merchant fees; interest may apply immediately	Annual fees; interest after grace period
Rewards	Limited at present	Cashback, reward points, EMI benefits
Security	UPI PIN-based; no card details exposed	PIN/CVV-based; comparatively higher fraud risk
Financial Inclusion	Targets new-to-credit and underbanked users	Favors established credit profiles

Benefits of UPI Credit Line as a Credit Card Alternative

1. Seamless Integration: Users can scan and pay using their smartphones without carrying cards, making it ideal for local merchants and small vendors.
2. Financial Inclusion: Enables access to credit for low-income and new-to-credit users using UPI transaction history.
3. Lower Costs: Reduced merchant acceptance fees and no physical card management.
4. Faster Scaling: Lower acquisition costs and higher repayment efficiency for lenders.
5. Behavioural Fit: Leverages existing UPI usage habits and QR-based payments.

Fintech players like Slice and other BNPL-focused companies are actively exploring UPI-first credit solutions as India’s BNPL market crosses $30 billion.

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Challenges and Limitations of UPI Credit Line

• Low Adoption: Credit line usage remains minimal as of 2026.
• Limited Features: Fewer rewards, cashback, and EMI options compared to cards.
• Risk Management: Banks are still testing underwriting models for small-ticket credit.
• Interest & Fees: Absence of grace periods may discourage users.
• Strong Competition: Credit cards remain superior for high-value transactions.

Adoption is expected to increase with greater NBFC participation and regulatory evolution.

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Impact of UPI Credit Line on Fintech and Digital Payments in India

UPI has already transformed payments and is now reshaping digital lending. The UPI credit line allows banks to modernise underwriting, collections, and credit access without relying on third-party lending platforms.

This model promotes financial inclusion, supports scalable lending, and positions India as a leader in non-Western digital credit innovation.

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Can UPI Credit Line Replace Credit Cards?

Over the next 2–3 years, UPI credit lines are expected to capture low-value, high-frequency transactions traditionally handled by credit cards. However, credit cards will continue to dominate high-ticket purchases and reward-driven spending for the next 5–10 years.

By 2026 and beyond, deeper bank–fintech integration and EMI capabilities will further strengthen the bridge between payments and credit.

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Conclusion

The UPI credit line is not yet a complete alternative to credit cards, but it represents a powerful shift in India’s digital lending ecosystem. By making credit as simple as scanning a QR code, it has the potential to redefine borrowing for millions.

The future of Indian fintech is deeply intertwined with the UPI framework, combining payments, credit, and financial inclusion at scale.

Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making financial decisions.

Gold and Silver Prices Hit Record Highs in 2026: Will Import Duties Push Prices Even Higher?

Gold and silver prices have entered uncharted territory in early 2026. From January itself, gold prices in India started hovering near record highs, driven by a powerful mix of global uncertainty, central bank buying, and strong domestic demand. At the same time, speculation is growing that the Union Budget 2026–27 may increase gold import duty India and silver import duty, a move that could further inflate domestic bullion prices.

For bullion traders, jewellers, and everyday investors, this combination of high global prices and possible policy changes has created a tense and uncertain environment. In this article, we break down the current situation of gold and silver prices in India, explain why the government is considering duty hikes, and explore the gold price forecast for 2026.

Current Situation of Gold and Silver Prices in India

As January 2026 draws to a close, gold and silver prices remain elevated both globally and domestically. International gold prices are trading near historic levels, hovering between $5,500 and $5,600 per ounce. This rally is not speculative in nature—it is driven by geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation fears, and aggressive gold accumulation by global central banks.

In India, prices are even higher due to strong local premiums. Bullion dealers are charging premiums of around $120 per ounce over international prices, the highest seen in nearly a decade. This premium reflects panic buying by consumers and investors who anticipate an increase in import duties in the upcoming budget.

Silver prices are also under pressure. Apart from investment demand, silver is seeing structural support due to its expanding use in electronics, electric vehicles, and solar panels. With India importing a large portion of its silver needs, higher global prices combined with local demand have pushed domestic silver prices sharply upward.

Why Gold and Silver Prices Are Rising So Rapidly

Gold prices have historically risen during periods of economic stress, but the recent surge has been unusually steep. The reasons go beyond short-term speculation.

Global economic uncertainty, rising sovereign debt, and currency depreciation fears have made gold the preferred hedge for institutions and central banks alike. At the same time, India’s cultural affinity for gold ensures that demand remains resilient even when prices are high.

Silver, often called “industrial gold,” is benefiting from a supply-demand mismatch. Industrial usage is growing faster than mine supply, which keeps prices supported even during market pullbacks.

Gold Import Duty India and Silver Import Duty: How It Works

India imports almost all of its gold and more than 80% of its silver. This makes gold import duty India and silver import duty powerful tools for the government to control prices, demand, and the trade deficit.

Currently, the total customs duty on both gold and silver stands at 6%, which includes Basic Customs Duty and Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess. This was reduced from the earlier 15% duty in mid-2024 to curb smuggling and stabilize the domestic bullion market.

However, customs duties are ultimately passed on to consumers. When duties increase, wholesale and retail prices rise almost immediately, making gold and silver more expensive across jewellery, bars, and coins.

Previous Import Duty Changes and Their Impact

Over the last five Union Budgets, import duties on precious metals have been adjusted frequently, reflecting the government’s balancing act.

In earlier years, duty hikes were used to manage currency pressure and reduce imports, while reductions aimed to curb smuggling and normalize the market. Despite these efforts, gold and silver imports surged again in 2025. Gold imports crossed $58 billion, while silver imports jumped sharply, driven by industrial demand.

This renewed surge has brought import duties back into policy focus ahead of Budget 2026–27.

Why India Is Considering Increasing Import Duties in 2026

The push to raise gold and silver import duties is rooted in macroeconomic pressure. In 2025 alone, bullion imports accounted for nearly $10 billion, adding stress to India’s trade deficit and weakening the rupee.

From a policymaker’s perspective, gold and silver imports—largely for investment and jewellery—do not directly contribute to productive economic growth during high-inflation periods. Increasing import duties is seen as a way to suppress demand, conserve foreign exchange, and stabilize the currency.

However, history shows that demand for gold in India is relatively inelastic. Higher duties often lead to unintended consequences such as increased smuggling or a shift toward alternative investment routes.

How Higher Gold Import Duty Can Push Prices Even Higher

Ironically, increasing gold import duty India or silver import duty often results in higher domestic prices rather than lower demand.

When duties rise, importers pass the additional cost down the supply chain. This raises wholesale prices, retail jewellery prices, and even premiums on coins and bars. As a result, Indian gold prices can rise even if global prices remain stable.

In anticipation of such hikes, investors also front-load purchases, pushing prices higher before the policy even takes effect. This expectation-driven rally is already visible in early 2026.

Impact on the Bullion Market in India

India’s bullion market is diverse, spanning jewellery, physical bars and coins, digital gold, and ETFs. A duty hike could reshape this ecosystem in several ways.

Physical gold may become less attractive due to higher prices and premiums, while paper gold instruments such as gold ETFs could see increased inflows. In fact, gold ETFs recorded explosive growth in 2025, reflecting a clear shift in investor behaviour.

Jewellery demand, especially during wedding and festival seasons, may soften temporarily, but India’s cultural attachment to gold ensures that long-term demand remains intact.

Gold Price Forecast for 2026: What Should Investors Expect?

The gold price forecast for 2026 remains cautiously optimistic. On the global front, central bank buying and geopolitical uncertainty continue to support elevated prices. Any significant correction appears unlikely unless there is a major improvement in the global economic outlook.

Domestically, a potential import duty hike could push Indian gold prices 5–10% higher, even without a global rally. While demand may dip slightly, especially in jewellery, price declines are expected to be limited.

If duties remain unchanged—or are unexpectedly reduced—domestic prices could see short-term relief. However, with global prices already near record levels, a sharp fall in Indian gold prices appears unlikely.

Final Thoughts: Gold’s Role in 2026 and Beyond

Gold has always served as a hedge against uncertainty, inflation, and currency risk. In 2026, that role is more relevant than ever. While higher import duties may temporarily disrupt demand patterns, they are unlikely to break India’s long-standing relationship with gold.

For investors, the focus should remain on long-term allocation rather than short-term price movements. Whether through physical gold, ETFs, or digital platforms, gold is likely to remain a core asset until global economic stability returns.